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On the fifth anniversary of the UK leaving the European Union, the BBC took a look at the key impacts of Brexit so far and by any reckoning it has been an utter disaster.
On Trade the Office for Budget Responsiblity (OBR), the government's official forecaster, believes there will be a long-term reduction in exports and imports of goods and services of 15% relative to the UK still being in the EU and this view hasn't changed since 2016, including under the previous Conservative government.
The OBR also forecast that the fall in trade due to Brexit will reduce the long-term size of the UK economy by 4%, or around £100bn in today's money.
Despite immigration being a key theme in the 2016 referendum, there has actually been a massive increase in net migration since Brexit. This chart doesn't really need any further explanation!
Since Brexit British passport holders can no longer use the EU lanes at EU border crossings and have to queue with other 'third country' travellers, and can only stay for 90 days in any 180 day period without requiring a visa. EU citizens visiting the UK can stay here for up to six months without requiring a visa.
This year the EU is planning to introduce a new electronic Entry Exit System (EES) that requires finger prints and facial images to be captured and is likely to lead to longer border queues for Brits. Six months later the EU says it will introduce a new European Travel Information and Authorization System (ETIAS) that will cost €7.
Another key Brexit theme was the ability of the UK to make its own laws rather than to follow EU law. However, the UK has retained nearly all EU laws and incorporated them into UK law as 'retained EU law'. At the last count there are 6,901 individual pieces of retained EU law. One claim made by Brexit supporters is that the UK was able to remove VAT from tampons and other sanitary products because of Brexit, but in fact the EU rules changed in April 2022 so the EU also now allows a zero rate on sanitary products.
The Leave campaign claimed during the 2016 referendum that the UK sent £350m every week to Brussels, around £18.3bn a year. This gross figure ignored the UK 'rebate' agreed with the EU of around £4bn a year, money which never actually left the country. The Leave campaign's claim also ignored the fact that our EU contributions were always partially recycled to the UK in the form of Common Agricultural Policy (CAP) payments and 'structural funding' in the form of development grants to support skills, employment, and training in disadvantaged regions of the UK. These added up to around £5bn in 2019-20.
The UK has also had to replace CAP payments with taxpayer funds and structural funding with a UK Shared Prosperity fund.
The net fiscal benefit to the UK from not paying into the EU budget is therefore closer to £9bn a year and this against a trade loss due to Brexit of £100bn a year.
